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Keywords
MEZZOGIORNO, POVERTY TRAPS, DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION, DUALISM AND STRUCTURAL CHANGE, DEVELOPMENT AND STABILIZATION POLICIES, FINANCIAL MARKETS AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

Poverty traps and multiple equilibria: a framework to interpret Mezzogiorno’s development

Università degli Studi di Napoli "Parthenope"
Abstract
The present research project draws from a previous funded research-project (Cofin 2003) whose aim was to re-examine the Mezzogiorno’s economic development in the light of the New Growth Theories (NTG). The result of such research was that the Mezzogiorno’s underdevelopment depends on a number of factors none of which is able to explain on its own the scarce growth performance of the Mezzogiorno. These results have made us to prefer a unique interpretative hypothesis based on a theoretical scheme which has been widely analysed within the NGT: the poverty trap. The objective of this research is i) to analyse the causes of the emergence of poverty traps; ii) to determine the role played by institutions in equilibrium selection; iii) to pinpoint economic policies in the presence of poverty traps; iv) to test empirically our hypothesis and v) to value the relative efficiency of the implemented policies.
Among the possible factors which can explain the emergence of poverty traps, we will analyse the demographic and family’s structures; the migration flows; the relationship between structural change and dualism; financial market development and the national and international institutional role.
This kind of analysis allows to reconsider the role and the definition of the exact policies to implement in the presence of poverty traps. In this case economic policies can be temporary. Indeed, since under a poverty trap underdevelopment is not generated by differences in >>>

Principal Investigator
Salvatore Vinci Università degli Studi di NAPOLI "Parthenope"
Research Objectives
The present research project draws from a previous funded research-project (Cofin 2003), who aimed at re-examining the Mezzogiorno’s economic development in light of the New Growth Theories (NTG). According to this research, we observed that various factors might determine the Mezzogiorno’s underdevelopment although none of them, taken alone, is able to account for the rather poor economic growth performed. The results obtained in the Cofin2003 research, for example, highlight a low degree of innovation by firms and a quite strong employing of low skilled and irregular workers. At the same time both a lack of low skilled workers has occurred, which mainly interest those skills required to new technologies, and a resurgence of out-coming flows of high skilled workers has emerged. How can this be interpreted? The scarce human capital accumulation useful for the new technologies is mainly caused by the low degree of innovation implemented by firms, or otherwise, the low degree of innovation may be due to the scarcity of low skilled workers? Further, if this is the case, how can we explain the out flowing of high skilled workers?
Credit market too turns out being inefficient and unwilling to fund rather innovative investments. Once again, which is the direction of the causality? Is it the scarce propensity to innovation activity of southern firms able to justify the difficulty of the financial system to fund such activities, or, otherwise, is it the scarce propensity of >>>

Timescale
24 months
National and international background
An interesting characteristic of the New Growth Theory (NGT) consists of considering different mechanisms capable of explaining the occurrence of multiple equilibria and equilibrium indeterminacy at a local and global level. These latter may be one of the reasons
These latter may be one of the reasons explaining differences in growth rates across countries and regions which are not necessarily based on differences on fundamentals. Moreover, multiple equilibria lead to another interesting concept developed by NTG: the poverty trap, namely a situation in which there are forces which self determine underdevelopment (Azariadis e Stachurski 2005). In particular, when an economy experiments a low equilibrium it tends to perpetuate such a low equilibrium. One of the peculiarity characterising a poverty trap is at least the presence of a self-enforcing mechanism which let the economy be trapped in a vicious circle of underdevelopment (Matsuyama, 2004).
Various are the nature and causes of both multipla equilibria and poverty traps; further the necessary and sufficient conditions accounting for the presence of this latter are even more tightened since multipla equilibria are only a precondition for letting poverty traps occurring.
Usually, the emergence of poverty traps might be lead from the existence of strong complementarities and increasing returns. The NGT has, indeed, widely investigated most of these possible sources. However, we believe that in analysing >>>