RICERCA ITALIANA     

Research program

The end of the cold war or the irresistible advance of globalization ? In search of a new interpretative paradigm for the transformation of the international system, 1985-1992

University Co-ordinator

Università degli Studi di BOLOGNA - POLITICA, ISTITUZIONI, STORIA - BOLOGNA(BO)

Research Unit Leader

Marco CESA

Description

The research project combines the classical methodology of theory-building with the gathering of various types of evidence intended to test the more relevant hypotheses, including primary sources, secondary literature, interviews and the recollections of some key eye-witnesses.
Prof. Cesa and the three leading American scholars included in the Research Unit will concentrate on the theoretical dimension of the project. While Prof. Cesa and Prof. Grieco -- who have worked together several times in the past -- will focus on the core Realist side, Prof. Ikenberry and Prof. Hoffmann are more sensitive to the "ideational" perspective. As a result, they form a balanced team whose purpose is to offer a comprehensive assessment of the competing paradigms involved as well a reformulation of the Realist theory of international change.
Prof. Hoffmann -- one of the most distinguished scholars in International Relations -- will assess the fundamental arguments for reducing the confidence in Realism as a result of the end of the Cold War, such as Realism's predictive failure; the anomalous nature of the end of the Cold War itself; and the way in which the Cold War ended, i.e. the role played by ideas, norms, transnational movements as opposed to "hard", material, causes.
Prof. Cesa, thanks to his previous work on the notion of "balance of power" and Thucydidean Realism, will deal with the "law of uneven growth" and its implications for the end of the Cold War. His work will aim at clarifying the relationship between ideational forces and material forces, and how a shift in the latter can affect the former. Moving from the assumption that peaceful change is nothing more than a smooth adjustment to the changed relations of power, Prof. Cesa will explore the conditions under which a sudden redistribution of power leads either to hegemonic war -- as often argued -- or to a peaceful transition, or, to put it differently, the conditions under which a rapid decline of the challenging state can establish general agreement about the relative bargaining power in the system.
Prof. Grieco, who is known for his work on the structural effects of international anarchy on state behavior, will study the repercussions of the "sameness effect". When the material success of certain states generates a convergence of beliefs about the competitive advantages of their institutions and practices, systemic pressures to conform become intense. Under these circumstances, other states will emulate those "foreign" practices even though, for reasons of domestic politics, ideology or culture, they would prefer not to do so. In particular, prof. Grieco intends to investigate the processes of emulation and socialization as important causal mechanisms of peaceful international change.
Prof. Ikenberry has done much work on the legitimacy of international order and the strategies adopted by the great powers that want to maintain or to revise that order. He is therefore in an ideal position to address the notions of engagement and accommodation as attempts to socialize other states into acceptance of the established order by means of the promise of rewards rather than the threat of punishment. As stated, although the literature on engagement deals with the concept as one more strategy to deal with a rising power, Prof. Ikenberry is confident enough that the same notion can be fruitfully applied to the case of a declining challenger. His task is to point out the conditions under which a declining power can be induced to adopt such a grand strategy, thus paving the way to peaceful change.
The other members of the group will be assigned different research tasks, all related to the empirical part of the project. Prof. Baroncelli specializes in International Political Economy. Her job will be to broaden the analysis of material incentives. Scholars on all sides in the international relations literature on the end of the Cold War typically treat the balance of capabilities as the only material change that needs to be taken into account. Prof. Baroncelli will bring a new factor into discussion: the changing structure of global production. Thus far, scholars have largely ignored this critical shift in the material environment. Introducing the structure of global production not only changes how we comprehend the end of the Cold War but has important implications for understanding the role of material incentives in international relations more generally.
Dr. Tortola and Dr. Testoni, in turn, will explore how Soviet relative decline affected the course of the Cold War in its final years. In recent years, new primary and secondary sources have become available that dramatically alter our earlier understanding of the material pressures on Soviet policymakers in the 1980s and the way in which those pressures influenced decisions. Dr. Tortola and Dr. Testoni have both previously worked on the rise and decline of the great powers in historical perspective. They will supply a fuller picture of the exact extent of Soviet relative decline, analyze how Moscow's experience of decline compares with that of other modern great powers, and draw on the most recent evidence concerning how perceptions of decline, new ideas, and new foreign policies were related.
Finally, Prof. Piretti will explore evidence on the role and attitudes of conservative or hard-line Soviet officials, most of which has recently become available. The dearth of evidence concerning the "old thinkers" has severely limited our understanding of the end of the Cold War. Examining "old thinkers" is especially important because they were exposed to the increasing material pressures confronting the Soviet Union in the 1980s, but were insulated from, or resistant to, ideational sources of change.